Published: July 02, 2008 11:39 am         

162 does not lie, and Orioles still just at 82

Just when you think the Baltimore Orioles have come to the bump in the road that will finally detour their season into the last-place oblivion every baseball expert had forecast them for in the offseason, they go and put together a good seven-to-10-game stretch of baseball and continue to buck the odds.

That has been an admirable quality of this team so far, to be certain. Now, however, the '08 O's find themselves at what may be their most challenging bump: closer George Sherrill, nearly impeccable through his career-high 26-saves start this season, suddenly can't secure the final out for save No. 27. He has surrendered two alarming late-inning home runs, the first one costing the Orioles a win, and the second one preventing them from winning another one, paving the way to two potentially crushing losses - in back-to-back appearances, taking place in a span of almost exactly 30 hours.

If that's not enough, middle reliever Matt Albers, a huge part of Andy MacPhail's Houston Heist, has a bum shoulder and will surely be lost for at least the rest of this season. Veteran reliever Jamie Walker has been disabled as we've come to find that the 37-year-old left-hander has been pitching with a sore elbow all season. The starting pitchers can't get through five innings, which has put a major strain on the already over-worked bullpen. The offense is efficient at times, anemic at other times, and spotty overall at best.

Sound familiar? Of course it does. It took a little longer to reach this potential trouble point, but the same barren farm system that helped cost Sam Perlozzo his job a year ago is now giving Dave Trembley the message that while he can push all of the right buttons a lot of the time, not even Earl Weaver would be able to overcome an organizational lack of depth over a 162-game season (and Weaver couldn't overcome it in '85 and '86). All of which should be a reality check for O's fans and players, who just last week were clamoring for MacPhail to trade prospects for a top-flight starter because, in Sherrill's words, "We're only seven games out," so the club would be better armed to make a run at contention this season.

Ain't going to happen. Nor should it happen. For this team, while worthy of our respect, is nowhere near contending and players, and fans have to understand that. Nobody in Baltimore should lose sight of the organization's big-picture plan, which MacPhail triggered with the trades of two star players in exchange for 10 fresh, younger players - two of whom (pitchers Troy Patton and Albers) are already done for the season.

Not that O's fans should not continue to enjoy the progress that is being made, nor should they expect the players to stop believing; but this team is no more ready to contend than it was in February when spring training began.

For beginners, this is not a contender's offense. The starting shortstop is Alex Cintron (who was just put on the disabled list). The starting catcher is washed-up Ramon Hernandez. And most importantly, there are no No. 1 or No. 2 starters at the top of the rotation. Gotta love Jeremy Guthrie, but on a contender right now he could be, at best, a solid No. 3. Daniel Cabrera, at best, remains an enigma. Brian Burres? A serviceable No. 5. Prized draft pick Adam Loewen? He's just back from another rehab and will work out of the bullpen.

The bullpen is falling apart. Albers will be missed terribly, and Sherrill, who has never been anything but a set-up man in the big leagues, has already made more appearances and thrown countless more pitches this season than he has in his life. A hanging slider that lands in the joy zone, as we saw on Monday night on an 0-2 pitch, will remind us of that. And this just in: the All-Star break is still two weeks away.

This bump in the road, even if it doesn't lead to a long meltdown, the likes of which we've seen the past several years in Baltimore, should further convince MacPhail, as though he needed convincing, to stick to his guns and keep building for the future. Don't ditch this season by any stretch of the imagination, but if deals can be made involving the likes of Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff, and even Luke Scott - all of whom are in their 30s, and none of whom are likely to carry as much trade value as they do now, particularly Huff and Scott - for the sake of building the kind of depth that can one day overcome stretches such as this one, by all means do it.

Sherrill, at age 31, could even be part of such a deal, allowing him to return to his set-up role for a contender, not that you're hearing any complaints here about the job he's done as a closer.`

As long as a team out there is willing to strip its farm system and help re-stock the Orioles', even a trade involving Brian Roberts is not beyond the realm of possibility, regardless of what O's management has been saying through this very enjoyable season. And know if Roberts is ever traded, it will be for most of another team's farm system, because Roberts is legitimately that good.

The future is now for teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox, who have the resources to spend on veteran stars and to build their farm systems at the same time. If the future is not now for the Tampa Bay Rays, it's not far off because they've built their farm system over the past 10 years to the point that it's the very best in baseball.

The future, however, is not even close to being now for the Baltimore Orioles. And even if they immediately come out and put together another solid seven-to-10-day stretch, the stretch they found themselves in entering last night's game should remind us all of why now's just not their time.

Don't ditch the season. By all means, proceed with an open mind. But no matter what, stick to the plan.

Contact Mike Burke at mburke@times-news.com.